First Storm Chase of the Year?
I’ve been watching the severe weather potential for Thursday, and it looks like it could be my first storm chase of the year. There is still plenty of disagreement in the forecast models, but it looks like a midlatitude cyclone may set up in southeastern Iowa, with a warm front stretching across the Illinois-Wisconsin border. Instability looks to be abundant, so if a storm can fire up along the warm front, it will be possible to see a tornado or two.
Of course, this all is still a couple of days out. The forecasts will change, and what ultimately happens will likely be pretty different from what the forecast models show anyways. Some concerns of mine over this set up are 1.) the overnight convection. If it, or any cloud cover associated with it linger longer than expected, that will greatly reduce the instability. 2.) The position of the warm front. If it ends up moving slower than expected, or stalling out somewhere south, than northern Illinois will not see very much. Of course, storm mode is always a concern.
Unfortunately, I have class on Thursday until about 3 PM. So right now, the plan is to see how things look after I get out of class, and decide if I want to chase after that.