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24 Hour Severe Weather Outlook
Storms
 
Elgin, IL Area Forecast
Issued:: Friday, August 7, 2015 12:50 PM

Tonight
Storms
Low:
33.
Winds:
East-southeast shifting west-southwast at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.

Local Radar


Short Term Forecast

...TONIGHT...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Low of 33. Winds from the east-southeast shifting west-southwest at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH. Chance of rain, 90%.

...TOMORROW...
Chance of rain during the morning. Then, mostly cloudy skies through the day with another chance of during the late afternoon. High of 50. Winds from the west-southwest shifting west-northwest at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH. Chance of rain, 50%.

 

Tomorrow
Tomorrow Night
Thursday
Thursday Night
Friday
Rain Rain Partly Cloudy Snow Mostly Sunny
High: 50.
Low: 31.
High: 42.
Low: 21.
High: 31.
Winds:
West-southwest shifting west-northwest at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.

Winds:
West-northwest shifting north-northwest at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.

Winds:
North-northwest at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.
Winds:
North-northwest shifting north at 10-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH.
Winds:
North 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued: Sunday, March 22, 2015 7:36 PM

The upper level regime of trough over the eastern half of the US, and ridge over the western half continues. A strong low is currently moving southeasterly through Quebec, towards New England. The resulting flow around the low is keeping northwesterly flow aloft over the Great Lakes region. Further upstream are two short wave troughs. Further south is a once cut off low, now beginning to rejoin the main jet stream. To the west, upper level ridging is currently moving over the Rocky Mountains; just behind the stronger of the two short wave troughs mentioned above. Behind the ridge is a deepening upper level trough just off the west coast.

At the surface, a long frontal boundary stretches from one low located in western North Carolina to another low long the Nebraska-Iowa border. Stretching northwest from this low is a weaker boundary, which connects to a low in southern Saskatchewan. The lift provided by the frontal boundary combined with some isentropic accent, as well as the short wave trough above, has triggered a long plume of snow showers extending from the Dakotas through northern Indiana.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a tongue of dry air on the backside of a weakening short wave trough over the Gulf Coast states. This dry air was responsible for keeping the snow from falling for much of the day. As the Gulf Coast trough moves further to the east, the dry air tongue will be pushed east as well; allowing for the snow to begin falling again.

Over the next 24 hours, the eastern most of the two short waves to the northwest should weaken. The other short wave, following the northwesterly flow, will push to the south east; also weakening. This movement will push the snow plume further south, over northern Illinois. Despite the weakening of the short wave, a 55-60 knot jet streak is expected to develop. This increasing upper level divergence, combined with 850mb frontogenesis will allow for heavier snow to fall.

While snow has already begun falling again at the time of this forecast, the heaviest of the snow shouldn't come until overnight and into Monday morning. Temperature profiles stay out of the dendritic growth zone, and the snow to liquid ration looks to stay at about the climatological average of 13:1. Forecast models are currently showing anywhere between 1.5 inches and 6 inches of snow falling. However, given the warmer ground temperatures, accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts seems a more reasonable forecast.

By around noon tomorrow drier air should move overhead in the upper levels. The result will be snow changing over into freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle could linger on into the evening hours. With the precipitation moving off, cloud coverage will decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday afternoon/evening, a broad area of showers will move into the area ahead of a warm front associated with a low moving northeastward out of the Central Plains. With warm air advecting into the area, the precipitation should remain rain. The rain is expected to continue overnight and into Wednesday morning.



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